Sunday, November 11, 2012

What the GOP can teach the European Right.

In 1988 Republicans received 53.4% of the vote in their last decisive victory. In 2012 the Republican vote share had declined to 47.9%. Interesting patterns emerge if we analyze the Non-Hispanic Whites and Non-Whites seperately:  

1988 Election:   
White: 57%
Non-White: 17.7%
Total: 53.4%

2012 Election: 
White: 59% (+2%)
Non-White: 19.4% (+1.7%)
Total: 47.9% (-5.5%)

That’s right folks; we are dealing with yet another example of Simpson’s Paradox! Republicans increased their share of both the White and Minority vote 1988-2012. Yet they collapsed in the total vote due to compositional change. In 1988 Whites were 85 percent of the electorate; in 2012 they had declined to 72 percent. 

Over the long run the GOP is not dying because of reduced support among minorities; it is dying because of the population share of minorities is increasing. The GOP supported low skill immigration based on the theory that low-income immigrants love the Republican platform of low taxes for millionaires and limited welfare services.

Now that immigration is making Republicans nationally unelectable, the GOP-elite solution is to accelerate immigration-driven demographic-transformation while refusing to compromise on our deeply unpopular position of keeping taxes low on the rich   

There is a lesson in this for the European right. Over the last few years the European right has gone from disliking to despising the GOP, due to the Iraq war (which I support), low taxes for the rich (which I support), the Christian Right, Rape-abortion, opposing gay-marriage, Bush/Palin/Trump/Santorum (not a fan). 

What you think of the GOP is however beside the point. The long run political consequences of  immigration-driven-demographic transformation are the same on both Europe and the U.S. Low-income minorities vote for the left in every western country I am aware of. 

In Sweden in 2010, the left got 77 percent of the vote of non-European immigrants in a year when only 43 percent of native born Swedes voted for the left. This is not explained with immigration policy; in Sweden the right has consistently favored higher levels of immigration than Social Democrats. Non-European immigrants are the fastest growing population group in Sweden.

In U.K in 2010, 68 percent of ethnic minorities voted for Labor while only 31 percent of White British voted for Labor.

In 2009 in Germany 84 percent of Turkish immigrants voted for the left in a year when only 39 percent of native born Germans voted for the left. 

The explanation for this strong tendency are fairly simple.
First, it is not in the material self-interests of poor people to vote for the party of low taxes and limited government.

Second, people don’t only vote based on self-interests, they vote based on group-interest. Many middle-class minorities from low-income ethnic groups vote for the left because of group solidarity. 

Third, economic inequality breeds resentment when it interacts with ethnicity. If you are poor and start to notice that most members of the ethnic group you belong to are poor while the majority population is affluent, you are more likely to assume that the economic system is fundamentally rigged against you due to racism, discrimination, exploitation etc and resent it. 

Other than moving to the left of the left, there is little the right can do about this. Reaching out will not make people vote against their material self-interest. No-one has figured out how to make low-skilled immigrants to the modern economy so economically successful that they start voting for the right. Libertarian theory predicts that low-skill immigrants eventually become high-income libertarians. Against that theory we have empirical experience over decades in every country i am aware of that they don't.

We all know economics is not a zero-sum game. But people seem to forget that electoral politics is a zero sum game. If one side gets a bigger share of the vote the other side loses. Immigration cannot politically benefit both the left and the right, their gain is our loss. The European and American left appear to operate on the theory that low-skilled immigrants vote for the left, and therefore support demographic transformation. The right and the left cannot both be right about this. 

What the Swedish right is doing now deluding themselves that low-income immigrants are natural libertarians and will start voting for us any day now, especially if we accelerate immigration. Actually this may be giving our strategists too much credit. Most people on the Swedish right do not even seem to be aware that non-European immigrants solidly support the left.

Deluding themselves into thinking low-income immigrant dislike the welfare state and like libertarian economic policy is what Republicans did 30 year ago. How did that work out for them?


  1. Third, economic inequality breeds resentment when it interacts with ethnicity. If you are poor and notice that most members of the ethnic group you belong to are poor white the majority population is rich, you are more likely to assume that the economic system is fundamentally rigged against you due to racism, discrimination, exploitation etc and resent it.

    But here in the USA despite having higher average income than whites Asians vote democrat. The Republican party is considered a white man's party. I think that they can combat that by running black and Hispanic candidates.

    1. Running Tokens, like what the Democrats do, will not work. Mia Love, Cruz, and West received ZERO coverage from the media during the RNC and they're far from the Tokens like Maxine Waters:

      The best solution is Secession. Secede now while people still have the will. Chase Liberals out of the territories that secede and guard your borders.

      Americans have guns. I own more guns than I was ever issued while in the Marines. Real Americans could secede and have the will to defend. We'd also have the ability to wage war. People tend to leave this off of the table as it's undesirable for most Conservatives but realistically it would solve many problems that will not be fixed in Washington: the Welfare State, illegals, and the bloated Federal Government. It wouldn't be pretty but considering the Left is anti-military I know plenty of guys, retired and still serving, who would jump at the chance to chase them out.

  2. Asians vote Democrat mainly because Asians are socially very liberal.

    1. Republicans should go after Asians and white liberals (who are actually economically conservative, but identify as "liberal" for cultural and class reasons). Republicans were winning Asians as a group as recently as the early 90's. It's primarily the opposition to same-sex marriage and abortion (which are seen as low-class) that is turning off these groups. The GOP would be smart to nominate a libertarian in 2016 if they want to win. A "moderate" won't cut it because they're pressured to flip-flop during the primary, which will be used against them in the general election.

  3. I'm afraid your numbers regarding voting trends by race seem to be cherry picked. I mean, what's so special about 1988? Did you choose it because it makes your argument look better?

    What's scary for the Republicans is that their support among non-whites actually has been decreasing in the last few elections. A lower percentage of non-whites voted Republican in 2008 than in 2004, and fewer still voted Republican in 2012 than in 2008. Granted, I don't think this trend will continue much further (simply because there won't be many Republican non-whites left who can switch sides) but that's before we take the demographic shifts into account.

  4. Tino, the highest apexes in the Swedish right are not ignorant or stupid.

    Their private polling would have revealed to them since long the trends that you are now showing.

    What they have done is simply taken "You cannot have a welfare state and open borders" to their hearts and in it found the instrument of destruction of the welfare state.

    By massively increasing the number of welfare state dependents (through mass immigration), they are making sure that the final outcome will be either one of following two.

    #1. The welfare state collapsing under its own weight and a forced movement towards lower wages, more flexible labor regulation, lower taxes etc.

    #2. An entrenched welfare state (by virtue of the voting power of the welfare state dependents) with "high" wages and high taxes. However, due to mass unemployment, tax subsidized employment will be offered on a massive scale. To the corporations, the outcome will be the same as in #1 above i.e. labor costs will be significantly lower.

  5. On the percentages you gave, for the 1988 republican vote, the outcome should have been 51.1%. To get 53% there should have been 90% white voters, or 30% non-white republican voters , or 60% white republican voters.

  6. The Swedish "right" is rather a syncretic amalgam of post-Marxism in regard to social issues, and third way in regard to economics. Much of this are much likely tactics, which in turn are due to inherent trends within the Swedish establishment, but might also reflect a general subversion made by people that want to divide and conquer and impose their libertarian dogmas on a economically strong guinea-pig.

    One of the best things that could happen to Sweden is if a right-wing party like the Swiss People's Party in Switzerland could get 25-30% of the voter's support, or more, and also get support of a more radical party that makes a national conservative party looking innoxious and mainstream. But unfortunately, I can't really see that happen in the near future.

  7. Under the current political system with the current political parties, the welfare state as we know it in Sweden is doomed either way.

    If the Swedish left governed, its demise would be slightly postponed as compared to the currently pursued policies by the "right".

    Of course, the general voting population is uninterested and oblivious to this as their main preoccupation in life is Facebook and Dancing with the Stars.

    MSM and the ruling classes (both "left" and "right") have done a heck of a job pushing an entire system beyond the point of no return (inadvertently as well as intentionally).

    I am amazed at the rate of change that this is happening and I predict that it will only accelerate.

    Having seen the fall of Communism I did not expect that I during my lifetime would experience an as profound system crash/transformation again.

    However, by the look of things, I anticipate that events in Sweden will prove me wrong in the very near future.

  8. I don't know Sweden very well... But I do know numbers. Sweden has a trade surplus and sane public finances. It has a credible currency (and not the Euro).

    It does not appear to be doomed at present.

    1. Are you kidding me? Standard of living is decreasing VERY fast in Sweden, according to UN HDI projections Sweden will be a third world country before 2040...

      How is that sane? Education in freefall, unemployment record high, skyrocketing crime... Did you know rape is up 6000% in 30 years?

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