Tuesday, April 10, 2012

Women and the recovery

As you know one problem with the unemployment rate is that it doesn’t include discouraged workers. Another measure of joblessness is the employment-to-population ratio, i.e. the share of the population that works. Let's graph the employment rate for people aged 20-64 during the recession and recovery. Source is the Bureau of labor statistics CPS.




The numbers in the graph are for first quarter of 2008, first quarter of 2009 and first quarter of 2012. The graphs suggest we are further from a recovery than the unemployment rate indicates.

Prior to the recession, there was a trend with women doing better than men, which Casey Mulligan has written about. During the recession men took a far bigger hit than women, with their employment rate falling twice as much as women.

Since President Obama took office in the beginning of 2009, women have actually been doing worse than men. The Republicans blame this on Obama, a response of sorts I suppose to the lefts ginned up “War on Women” accusation.

It seems to me the most plausible explanation for why male employment is recovering faster is that men initially took a bigger hit. On this one Obama is right and Republicans wrong.

Monday, April 9, 2012

The "Mystery" of rising Antisemitism in Malmö

Anti-Semitism has risen in Malmö, including attacks on the tiny Jewish community, and reports that some are leaving the city.

Jewish-Swedish Paulina Neuding writes about this in the Jerusalem Post, attributing the phenomenon to the rise of the Muslim population share. The Swedish left is outraged, and is denouncing Neuding as a racist. But whats racist about it?

In 2005 the Social Democratic government conducted a comprehensive survey of Antisemitism in Sweden. They use an index to measure Antisemitism, asking questions such as “Jews have too much influence in the world today”. They found that the prevalence of Antisemitic views was indeed far higher among Muslims:

“antisemitiska uppfattningar och ambivalenta attityder till judar är jämförelsevis mer utbredda bland muslimer än bland kristna och icke- religiösa. Bland vuxna hyser 39 procent av dem som betecknar sig som muslimer en systematisk antisemitisk inställning jämfört med 5 procent totalt [3 procent bland etniska svenskar].”

For example, 7 percent of Swedish adults agree with the conspiracy theory that Jews were behind 9/11, compared 36 percent of Swedish Muslims. Only about 17 percent of Muslims immigrants in Sweden scored "low" on the Antisemitism index, whereas two thirds of native Swedes scored low. This is the same conclusion in all surveys of European Antisemitism I have seen: it is substantially higher among Muslim immigrants. An example is this study co-authored by a Yale university scholar. On average, Muslims are 8 times more likely to have Antisemitic views.

Now, given that Antisemitism is rampant in the Middle East (90-95% self-report disliking Jews), and given their war with Israel for half a century, none of this should surprise anyone. I don’t think most Muslims who have anti-Semitic sentiments after a life-time of propaganda from Middle Eastern media are bad people. In time this should be a solvable problem as they integrate and stop relying on middle eastern media. Nevertheless, higher than average prevalence of anti-Antisemitism among Muslims today is simply a fact.

Government statistics show that heavily immigrant Malmö has the highest rate of hate-crime, including very high rates of anti-Semitic hate crimes. It also shows that neo-nazis and white supremacists are not involed in in about 75 percent of the Antisemitic hatecrimes.

"Antisemitiska, islamofobiska och övriga antireligiösa hatbrott var vanligast förekommande i Malmö kommun"..."I drygt vart fjärde av de antisemitiska hatbrotten ingår vit makt-ideologi i motivbilden"

Note also that the Swedish government does not consider crime motivated by hatred of Israel as anti-Semitic hatecrimes "Brott som rör staten Israel och dess politik kodas inte som hatbrott"

The government is being cute, so though their statistics report every conceivable detail, they just happen to leave out the immigrant origin of the suspects.

Ethnologist Susanne Nylund Skog conducted extensive interviews with 20 young Swedish Jews about antisemitism. It turns out that they indeed experience Antisemitism, and that middle eastern immigrants are often the perpetrators.

About one half of Malmö's jewish community are members of The Jewish Association. The Jewish associations themselves point to a small group of middle eastern immigrants as the driving source of hatecrimes against jews in Malmö:

"Vi har ett problem i Malmö; att här finns muslimer som inte gillar judar." "Dock understryker han att alla muslimer i Malmö inte ska dras över en kam. Det är en mindre grupp det handlar om."

Let’s repeat the results found in the government survey of Antisemitism. Among Muslims adults in Sweden, 39% score high on the Antisemitism index. Among all adults in Sweden, including immigrants and natives, the number is 5%. Among native born Swedish adults, the number is 3%.

Knowing this order of magnitude disparity, it is close to a mathematical certainty that rising Muslim population share in Malmö will increase the prevalence of Antisemitism. Only strong and implausible forces in the opposite direction could prevent this, e.g. Muslims with anti-Semitic views abandon them when they arrive in Malmö and Malmö alone.

Indeed, Antisemitism has risen in Malmö as the population share from the middle east has risen. The Jewish Association themselves point to Muslim immigrants as the driving source. Occam's Razor suggests to anyone with a minimum analytical ability that the two trends are connected. If you have this minimum level of logic, you also understand that this does not imply that all, most, or even a high percentage of Muslims commit such crimes. It's just that the percentage is even smaller among native Swedes.

Yet Neudling is denounced as a racist by the innumerate Swedish establishment. Because we all know Jewish libertarian girls concerned by anti-Semitic attacks on their community are the essence of racism...

There are lots of admirable things about Sweden. However, it’s hard to defend a society that makes math a Thoughtcrime. As I have pointed out, in order to stop any critique of multiculturalism, Swedish liberals are forced to increasingly abandon the core enlightenment principle of Reason, where facts and logic expressed freely guarantee the open society. Their war against scientific methods irritates me much more than their policies.
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